Opinion Polls or Pre election polls
There is a heated discussion going on in
political circles. The topic of whether opinion polls or Pre-polls is to be
banned has suddenly became a hot topic now. The reason for the sudden interest
is that the main party of the Ruling UPA has expressed its opinion in favour of
the ban to the Election Commission (EC).
As is the usual practice in India, whenever the ruling party makes a
statement on any subject, the main opposition party the BJP has t come out with
statements opposing the same attributing for some motive to the decision of the
main Ruling party. In this issue of
whether opinion polls or Pre-polls is to be banned the reason attributed to the
ruling party by the opposition is that the pre poll surveys all show a sliding
of opinion against it and is afraid of the results being affected by these polls
in the coming elections to the Assembles of 5 States due.
Without going to the politics of it, let
us consider the issue. Why there should be any opinion polls or Pre-polls are
to be done when the people are going t the polls within about 2 months time. The
people will express their opinion through the actual elections. The opinion
polls are not very scientific as is it s not even a random sample of the real
polls. The opinion polls are done on selected pockets spread over the state or
country which may not be even 5% of the electorates involved. There is a chance of the political parties
trying to influence the agencies conduction the opinion or pre polls. Though
this exercise may not affect the real elections, but still there is a
possibility of it influencing the voters and may become like an exercise to
influence the voters in favour or against a party. If it happens this is not
good for a free and fair election.
Now let us take some of the opinion or
pre polls conducted earlier. In case of
the General Elections to the parliament let us see the opinions through the pre
polls and the actual results after elections. In 2004 ‘Most analysts believed
the NDA WOULD WIN THE ELECTIONS; THIS ASSESSMENT WAS ALSO SUPPORTED BY OPINION
POLLS’. Though PRE-POLL PREDICTIONS were FOR an OVER WHELMING MAJORITY FOR THE
BJP, the exit polls (immediately after the elections and before the counting
began) PREDICTED A HUNG PARLIAMENT. However, even the exit polls could
only indicate the general trend and nowhere close to the final figures. In the results of real elections the Congress
party came as the largest single party and with its allies had comfortable
majority. IN 2009 the ANALYSIS on “Most opinion polls conducted by major
agencies GAVE UPA an EDGE OVER NDA, but none has predicted to get absolute
majority”. But the UPA GOT MORE than the prediction. In the 2009 election results the UPA came out
successfully with 80 seats more than 2004. The above indicate that the analysis
& opinion polls do not reflect the correct position.
Now let us take the cases of the Assembly
polls:
Uttarakhand polls: Survey a shot in Khanduri’s arm
“Tuesday morning Uttarakhand woke up to a pre-poll survey
giving BJP an edge and another term. In Gopeshwar, excitement on the survey
began within minutes of Khanduri's public rally. The actual election results show that BJP won in 31 seats and Congress in
32.
Himachal Pradesh:
“While the contest is bound to be a closely fought one, the
BJP can take comfort from the survey which shows that the pro-incumbency
sentiment is stronger than anti-incumbency, though not by a wide margin. While
40 per cent of those surveyed were willing to give the BJP government of Chief
Minister Prem Kumar Dhumal another chance, 34 per cent were against it. But the election result is BJP got 26 seats and Congress 36 seats.
Uttar Pradesh results
of Pre or Opinion Polls and the actual results:
In UP the survey result
was Congress + RLD - 94; BJP - 57; SP - 127; BSP - 108. The Election results
show: Congress + RLD - 37; BJP - 47; SP - 224; BSP - 80.
Gujarat State
BJP was projected to
get 129-141 seats and the Congress to get 37 to 45 as per the opinion or pre
election poll survey. The actual
results are 115 for BJP and Congress 61 seats.
Punjab State
As per pre poll or opinion poll the Congress was projected as
having an edge over BJP + SAD. As per the pre polls Congress was to get 69 seats
and the BJP + Sad was to get 40. When the election results came out the
Congress secured only 46 and the alliance of BJP and SAD got 68.
The above data prove that the opinion
polls and analysis are futile exercises which create unnecessary anxiety and
bitterness to most of the parties and followers. The people of the states and country are also
put to unnecessary gossips and speculations etc. It is quite possible that the results may influence the voting citizen and there is also possibilities of unscrupulous parties trying to have stage managed Opinion Polls, Why Pre election survey polls. Hence the Opinion Polls or Pre election survey polls should be banned.
